Top: Observed CO2 emissions (solid) and fitted Hubbert Curve prediction of future emissions. Middle: observed and predicted CO2 concentration. Bottom: observed and predicted global average temperature. Predicted temperature is well below the Kyoto target of 2oC above the preindustrial value.

These pages are concerned with the response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to a short pulse in emissions known as the CO2 Impulse Response Function or IRF.

The widely accepted CO2 IRF is wrong.

A more realistic IRF can be estimated using statistical methods. Predictions of of futureĀ  CO2 concentration and global average temperature based on a revised IRF are shown in the above diagram. They are based on the Hubbert curve for “Peak Carbon”.

We conclude that:

A “do nothing” scenario will lead to temperatures well below the Kyoto target.

Government spending of billions of dollars on emissions reduction is wasted.

There is no “Climate Emergency”.

The world faces a massive energy shortage within the next few decades.